| [ Mark This Forum Read ] |
 | |
| Topic Threads :: Showing topics per page
Forum Page Listing : First 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 |
|
| Topic
|
Last Seen |
Started By / Last Comment  |
Replies |
Views |
 |
 | Welcome to the GaveKal Forum
| | Welcome to the GaveKal Forum, where we discuss various investment topics amongst ourselves and with our clients. Please click this thread for posting guidelines and help. |
|
|
Pierre Gave / Pierre Gave
11/18/2004 6:47 PM |
0 |
3740 |
|
| Putting Forex Reserves to effective use
| | With Forex Reserves of Countries running over $100 bn (China , Korea , Taiwan, Singapore , India _ _), Investing the same to earn rate of return which is higher than the opportunity cost has acquired significance.
S & P has opined against investing the same in Infrastructure projects as it amounts to deficit financing.
Does it not score above investing the same in low yielding bonds denominated in US / Euro or utilising the same to scale up "Military capacity". |
|
|
Satyen Mundra / Charles Gave
5/4/2005 12:09 PM |
1 |
1033 |
|
|  Stagflation
| | Looking at today's disappointing US economic data releases, do you think we are entering a period of stagflation? |
|
|
Martin / Louis Gave
4/19/2005 7:03 PM |
3 |
976 |
|
| Economic Volatility in Japan
| | You guys have done some excellent work on declining economic volatility. What is the situation in Japan? It strikes me that data volatility is increasing on a monthly basis but I couldn't be completely sure. |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
4/1/2005 4:22 PM |
3 |
818 |
|
| China growth
| | are conditions really getting less favourable to capital spending in China? |
|
|
Ed the Sword / Louis Gave
3/29/2005 4:52 PM |
1 |
1022 |
|
| Korean FX Intervention
| | I had no idea that Korean intervention was already running at these enormous levels - $2 billion a week. This is almost as much as Japan was doing a year ago, with an economy roughly six times the size. Also, Korea's forex reserves at $200 billion are now bigger relative to GDP than Japan's. Now it seems that Korea and Taiwan are holding talks to discuss coordinating defensive intervention and tightening exchange controls. |
|
|
Anatole Kaletsky / Charles Gave
3/29/2005 4:24 PM |
5 |
857 |
|
| A point on the VIX index
| | In the last Five Corners (attached) you wrote that we shouldn't expect VIX to decline further this year. But breaking up the index into its two components(correlation between stocks, and volatility of these stocks) we can notice that today, differently from 1990´s lows, we find that stocks are much more correlated, although less volatile. |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Anonymous Client
3/10/2005 2:33 PM |
2 |
906 |
|
| Falling Reserves, Bullish for the US$?
| | I have a question on your recent work:
Why is it that slowing growth/ fall in reserve held for foreign central banks at the FED is bullish for the Dollar? |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
3/8/2005 4:50 PM |
1 |
1049 |
|
| Questions on Emerging markets and worsening liquidity
| | I have a couple of questions on your latest Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: 1) Page 35 on "How the Current Situation Could Evolve". The cycle is not a circle...after the latest US$ rise and worsening liquidity, is it he time for a major financial crisis in periphery? 2). You recommend to be, generally speaking, underweight Emerging markets due to their liquidity and dollar sensitivity (we totally agree with your analysis). However, you mention that some local producers in positive CF could still outperform. Could you please elaborate on how to identify these countries? What are their common features (except positive CF)? |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
3/8/2005 4:42 PM |
1 |
1081 |
|
| Bank of Korea announcement
| | Reading the Bank of Korea's announcement that it was planning to diversify its foreign reserves out of USD and into other currencies I was reminded of similar announcements by the Bank of Taiwan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore in mid-1995. |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
2/25/2005 4:51 PM |
1 |
837 |
|
| Comment to Anatole's latest paper, Hot Air in Davos
| | Following is an amusing comment from one of our friends regarding Anatole's latest piece, Hot Air in Davos (attached). |
|
|
Pierre Gave / Anonymous Client
1/28/2005 4:03 PM |
2 |
1111 |
|
| Comments to your analysis of the US trade number in Checking the Boxes, January 5th (attached)
| | Respectfully i believe your analysis to be faulty on several counts: first according to Bloomberg the average price of imported oil actually dropped in November from October, while volume increased, documenting the increasing dependence of the US on imported oil, second-the structural problem of the trade deficit is the erosion of the US manufacturing industry, which will never be compensated in foreign trade terms by other components. |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
1/17/2005 3:59 PM |
1 |
859 |
|
| TSMC - A note from Overlook
| | Since late 1998, Charles has been invested in an Asian LP called Overlook investments (the fund is now closed) managed by Richard Lawrence. Over the years, we have come to greatly value Richard’s insights into the region’s events and developments. With his permission, we reproduce today an excerpt of his December newsletter, which we found particularly interesting; if for no other reason that it highlights that mentalities around Asia are evolving, for the better. |
|
|
Louis Gave / Louis Gave
1/6/2005 5:32 PM |
0 |
1069 |
|
| US Economy remains strong
| | While the rest of the OECD is showing some signs of an economic slowdown, the US economy is powering ahead. Yesterday, the US leading indicators rose by +0.2%, the first rise in six months. |
|
|
Pierre Gave / Pierre Gave
12/21/2004 11:00 AM |
0 |
958 |
|
| Signs of slowing world trade?
| | In the last 10 days, the Baltic freight rate has dropped over -16% (see chart). With commodity prices also starting to roll over, is this the start of a trend of decelerating global trade? |
|
|
Pierre Gave / Pierre Gave
12/20/2004 12:13 PM |
0 |
1171 |
|
| Japanese Liquidity
| | How do you view the liquidity situation in Japan now? Money supply isn't accelerating and the economy looks to be stuttering especially with the authourities taking back tax breaks. |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
12/16/2004 5:20 PM |
1 |
1042 |
|
| Chinese Overinvestment & Growth
| | Investing in high growth countries can be very rewarding. However it takes a strong stomach to cope with the sharp turns between hilarious ascents and deep troughs. Investors are well advised to constantly be on the look out for new qualms In China, after worrying over bad harvests and inflation, now the time has come to over-investment. Not only does China show a record breaking 45 percent investment to GDP ratio, but it has stayed at these stratospheric levels for several years now. Why has it come about? |
|
|
Johan Voss-Schrader / Louis Gave
12/13/2004 3:20 PM |
13 |
911 |
|
| Chinese Inflation
| | What odds/comments do you have on the following outlook?
Inflation remains strong at the front end of the global economy (i.e. structural bottlenecks/shortages at the coal face) but inflation remains stable or falls at the back end (i.e. Walmart responds to falling same store sales by going back to what it did best but forgot this year; slashing prices). Bonds probably rally to the surprise of most, but equity markets struggle, with more of the same leadership(Developing vs Developed, producers vs consumers)? |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
12/8/2004 5:06 PM |
5 |
798 |
|
| Tanker Rates
| | Tanker rates continue to increase, yesterday a new record was set for Suez Max from Nigeria to the US. At the same time oil has fallen significantly from its highs. Do you think the record high tanker rates indicate an underlying extreme demand for oil ahead of the winter, and that the oil price has fallen mainly due to speculative positions having gone from long to short? |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
11/30/2004 4:37 PM |
1 |
888 |
|
| Question on the Loonie
| | I have been particularly interested in your recent work on the strength of currencies. The loonie (C$) appears to be on a similar track to the asian currencies you refer to. How strongly is the currency correlated to the oil price and would you expect a reversal in this (if it ever happens!) to lead to a similar decline in the C$? At which point, would you also expect asian currencies and the euro to appreciate strongly versus the loonie? |
|
|
Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
11/18/2004 6:39 PM |
1 |
936 |
|
| US dollar - Is something badly wrong?
| | If the dollar couldn 't rally on news like the recent payrolls and the election result, we have to re-examine out persistently bullish view.
To keep finding new "fundamental" arguments for dollar strength and euro weakness, looks increasingly like psychological denial. |
|
|
Anatole Kaletsky / Charles Gave
11/18/2004 6:15 PM |
7 |
918 |
| Topic Threads :: Showing topics per page
Forum Page Listing : First 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 |