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 | Welcome to the GaveKal Forum
| | Welcome to the GaveKal Forum, where we discuss various investment topics amongst ourselves and with our clients. Please click this thread for posting guidelines and help. |
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Pierre Gave / Pierre Gave
11/18/2004 6:47 PM |
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3740 |
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| Financial Relationships
| | Co-orelation between two geographically diversified financial markets. |
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Satyen Mundra / Pierre Gave
7/13/2005 5:45 PM |
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851 |
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| Japanese Capital Spending
| | You mentioned that the Japan Tankan confidence index rose higher than expected, suggesting “capital spending plans are strong in Japan”. Yet you’ve written before about how Japanese growth is tied to China. With Chinese CapEx slowing, is increased Japanese CapEx a smart thing for Japanese businesses? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
7/13/2005 5:33 PM |
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921 |
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|  Opinions on GOLD
| | not being a goldbug but seeing gold as one of the only true hedges against mounting private debts, government debts, aging societies, currencies which cannot supposed to be strong (e.g. EUR). |
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vossu / Pierre Gave
7/13/2005 5:26 PM |
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798 |
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| Remarks on FiveCorners 6_13: Is the US C/A deficit unsustainable?
| | Is the comparing US C/A deficit with US private net assets value ( something near 49 trillions USD by FED) the best way of finding is US deficite sustainable or not?
I don’t think so. My humble opinion is that the better way of finding the real state of US C/A deficit sustainability should be to compare it with whole the World’s disposable savings at the moment. |
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Piotr / Piotr
7/13/2005 5:58 AM |
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804 |
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| Soft Commodites_To Buy or not to Buy
| | A bull run in soft commodities may happen if not on the bais of fundamentals then merely by the cult following enjoyed by forecasters. |
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Satyen Mundra / Satyen Mundra
7/4/2005 11:09 PM |
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1190 |
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| The Swedish Rate Cut
| | What do you make of the 50 bps cut by the Swedes? Have they been influential or lead indicators for the Euro community? |
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Anonymous Client / Johan Voss-Schrader
6/29/2005 4:51 PM |
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971 |
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| Euro carry trade?
| | Given your experiences in Japan and more recently in the US, what are the implications as a result of the "carry trade" shifting to the euro as the source of low cost funding? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
6/29/2005 4:43 PM |
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983 |
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| Foreign Reserves held at the Fed
| | In your research you often use Foreign Official Dollar Reserves. Did you know that Dr Yardeni uses it in a similar style? He calls it FRODOR (FoReign Official DOllar Reserves of central banks), but as I see it, he goes one step further in using it. Using this measure, he foresees a global slowdown, (nothing special at this moment) but without the proverbial "second half recovery". Do you agree? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
6/22/2005 6:09 PM |
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779 |
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| Will cutting interest rates really boost spending in Euroland?
| | Quite frankly I am getting more and more frustrated at the lack of understanding of european's spending dynamics! Cutting rates will only incline them to spend less. As you say, there spending ratios are sky high and they tend to spend the return on their spending, not their spending themselves. So cutting rates can perversly cut spending power. The solution is more to slash taxes and talk the euro down in my opinion. his could lead to ECB hiking rates, increasing housing borrowing costs, but more importantly, consumer's spending power? |
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Anonymous Client / Anatole Kaletsky
6/13/2005 6:09 PM |
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885 |
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| A Comment on your piece " Divorce Italian Style"
| | Just read Anatole's piece on Italy (see attached).
Must ask, if Italy's were to leave Emu, debts in euro would still be in euro. Can't see how they could convert it to any other currency. What's the point here? |
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Anonymous Client / Anatole Kaletsky
6/13/2005 6:05 PM |
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824 |
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| Base commodities the new reserve currency?
| | I wonder what you and the rest of the Gavekal team think of industrial commodities becoming the new reserve currency, particularly for China? We have seen a trend towards inventory accumulation of strategic commodities, such as oil, and I feel that industrial metals could become part of this trend. This would be $ neutral but euro negative in my opinion. |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
6/13/2005 5:42 PM |
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808 |
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| Buying European industrials? I wouldn't...
| | At first thought, it would be logical to buy the EMU industrials index given the fall in the Euro, and sell them when the Euro rises; Right? Wrong! This strategy has not worked since 2003. |
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Louis Gave / Louis Gave
6/10/2005 6:44 PM |
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727 |
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| Drivers of Growth
| | It seems to me that the state of many markets at the moment (certainly here in Australia and in the US) is corporates who are making record operating margins, generating significant free cashflow and have strong balance sheets - and consumers with less robust wage growth (certainly relative to corporate profit growth), stretched balance sheets and cashflow that is supported by low goods inflation and low funding costs. |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/31/2005 4:27 PM |
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802 |
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| Mid-Cycles or Imbalances?
| | While there is much of your thoughts I either agree with or find instructive because they are different from mine, your notion of a "typical mid-cycle slowdown" seems to me bizarre.Looking at real GDP numbers this may seem like a typical cycle. Looking at financial balances within and between countries it is atypical in the extreme. For this to continue as a typical cycle financial imbalances must persist or increase. |
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Anonymous Client / Johan Voss-Schrader
5/26/2005 8:24 PM |
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910 |
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| New Zealand Financial Markets
| | We would appreciate your quick views on the current situation in New Zealand on equity, currency and property markets. Any statistics or charts (preferably) to support our bearish view on those asset classes? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/25/2005 6:07 PM |
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788 |
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| The German Election
| | What do you make of the recent German election? It seems to be offering some short term support to euro and DAX. Is it a case of re-arranging the chairs on the titanic? Or should we expect something real? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/25/2005 11:05 AM |
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767 |
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| Rising China
| | How China is transforming the global economy |
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MLWY / MLWY
5/20/2005 6:57 PM |
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1030 |
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| The HKD peg reform
| | I read your piece on the HK peg reform, and agree with your broad conclusions. However, I'm afraid your U$/HKD rate info is incorrect. It wasn't at 7.7443 yesterday - it was last there in Nov '03, no less! It opened at 7.7980, where's it's been for some time. |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/20/2005 4:26 PM |
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865 |
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| Lions aid for Tsunami victims
| | I think I know one of the best ways to contribute to the relief appeal. I belong to the local Lions Club, part of a world-wide international movement with branches virtually everywhere. The Club has already donated $600,000 from international funds and members are pitching in. |
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Anonymous Client / MLWY
5/20/2005 3:37 PM |
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| why underweight german equities? - overweight!
| | more positive sentiment for German equities
falling EUR
positive earnings momentum
two thirds of revenues are made abroad |
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vossu / vossu
5/20/2005 1:53 AM |
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989 |
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| Playing a revaluation in the Malaysian Ringit
| | We agree with your point regarding the fact that the Malaysian Ringgit is one of the few currencies that is extremely undervalued against the USD and it seems not to be a crowded trade. As the 12 month forward implies a 2/3% revaluation, the bet seems to have a good risk/reward. Could you please give a broad idea of the statistics and concepts behind this revaluation trade? |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/19/2005 6:49 PM |
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878 |
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| What should we do about Japan?
| | We are particularly interested in Japan, and having followed it for 20 years, now find it at or near attractive levels for the first time in 15 years! If you have any thoughts or pieces on Japan, that would be great, particularly those that argue the reverse. |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/19/2005 6:42 PM |
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| How to play market volatility?
| | Now, market volatility (Vix) and economic volatility are low and, as mentioned, political risk could "explode" upwards. We would assume that economic volatility has more potential to rise than fall either because of unwinding imbalances (which you believe of not too serious) or because China, an emerging market, one where politics matters as much as economic, is a "600lb gorilla" in terms of its effect on the global economy--while mean growth rate likely to remain impressive, the standard deviation will be large. |
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Anonymous Client / Charles Gave
5/19/2005 6:32 PM |
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| Protectionism and the Chinese RMB
| | I take it from your grave concerns over protectionism in the US that you are OK with the Chinese policy of pegging the yuan. In order to believe that protectionism is a mistake, you must believe also in the following: 1) that the US has other channels available to it (e.g. talking the Chinese into a free floating currency), or 2) that it is acceptable for a country to used fixed exchange rates and exchange controls to 'begger-thy-neighbor', irrespective of the investment issues presented by the surplus. |
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Anonymous Client / Anonymous Client
5/18/2005 5:27 PM |
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1007 |
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| Accountants vs Economists
| | I am not persuaded by your argument "Accontants vs Economists" in the last Five corners. |
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Anonymous Client / Louis Gave
5/6/2005 1:54 PM |
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876 |
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